Welcome to The Red Corner, a brand new boxing and MMA column brought to you by the Amarillo Pioneer, covering the world of boxing and mixed martial arts. This column will bring you news, opinions, and quick facts that you need to know about the fights that make the sports world pay attention.
On Saturday night, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor will face off in the third fight of their UFC trilogy, completing a series of fights that has spanned across seven years and two different weight classes. At the moment, both men are tied in the series, with McGregor having won their first meeting in 2014, and Poirier having picked up the win in their rematch this past January.
As the two lightweight stars prepare to do battle Saturday night, the world will be watching to see who claims their path to the next lightweight title shot and which contender must go back to the drawing board. Right now, Poirier is listed as a slight favorite according to William Hill, at -135 (bet $135 to win $100), while McGregor comes back as a slight underdog at +115 (bet $115 to win $100).
Fans of both fighters want to see their preferred combatants walk out of the cage on Saturday night with the win and they have been making the cases for their fighters during the entire buildup to the fight.
After listening to both sides and rewatching both fights — which can be viewed in the YouTube links embedded in this article — I am leaning toward Dustin Poirier repeating history and defeating Conor McGregor again in their UFC 264 bout on Saturday.
Let me explain why.
There is no denying that both men were totally different fighters and athletes in their second bout this year as compared to their first bout in 2014, in which McGregor scored an early knockout over Poirier. And their records show this to be the case.
After defeating Poirier, McGregor went on to win the UFC’s featherweight and lightweight titles, finishing champions Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez. However, after this bout, McGregor also suffered a few big defeats, losing via submission to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov — although he later avenged the Diaz loss — before being finished by Poirier this past January. All in all, McGregor has amassed a 6-3 record since beating Poirier in 2014, not counting his one-off boxing debut, which he lost by knockout to Floyd Mayweather.
Meanwhile, Poirier has seen a complete turnaround in his career, retooling himself from a good featherweight into perhaps the most elite lightweight fighter on the UFC roster today. Amassing a record of 11-2-1 since his first meeting with McGregor, Poirier defeated former lightweight champions Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez, knocked out future interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje in 2018, and won his own interim lightweight title by outpointing perhaps the best striker in the UFC — former featherweight champion Max Holloway — in a 2019 bout. Of his two loses since his first meeting with McGregor, Poirier dropped one bout to Michael Johnson and the other to a man who is arguably the best lightweight fighter in UFC history, the retired former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Both men amassed impressive records after their first fight, which created plenty of buzz for their second fight. But, while the records were impressive, Poirier showed which man had progressed the most as a fighter, mixing in the threat of takedowns, alongside devastating kicks to slow down and ultimately finish McGregor in their UFC 257 bout in January.
Looking ahead to Saturday night, I expect a similar storyline to play out in their third fight of the trilogy. With a better ground game, devastating kicks, and crisp boxing, I expect Poirier to outland McGregor, chopping away at his legs with strong calf kicks, and threatening the Irishman with takedowns or even the possibility of takedowns. McGregor might extend the fight longer than two rounds in this trip to the cage, but I still expect to see the Louisiana native Poirier with his hand raised in the center of the cage.
Now, with all of this being said, it is worth noting that it wouldn’t be a shock if McGregor managed to catch Poirier clean early, scoring an early knockout. This is probably the Irishman’s best path to victory, as the longer the fight goes, and the more Poirier’s kicks begin to wear at McGregor’s legs, the slimmer his chance for victory becomes.
This will be an interesting bout and I will certainly be front and center on Saturday night, watching it live on pay-per-view to see what happens. But, in the end, I expect Poirier to once again come out on top and move to the front of the line to face current lightweight champion Charles Oliveira later this year.
Please note: This article is not meant to constitute gambling or betting advice. Please do not use this article as a guide to gambling or betting on the fight. This article is strictly meant to serve as a non-scientific journalistic analysis and opinion of this fight.