Graphic by Noah Dawson for The Amarillo Pioneer

Early voting in the November 8th midterm election was half way over as of the close of polls on Saturday night. Since then, the Amarillo Pioneer has worked through the turnout lists to get an idea of the party affiliations of those who’ve already cast ballots.

As we also looked at this data after the first three days of early voting, we will also be comparing the current data with our earlier analysis.

Randall County

First, we begin in Randall County, where 17,880 votes have been cast. When we looked at the data earlier this week, 55% of the ballots cast had been by voters who had voted in the Republican Primary election earlier this year, while 5% had voted in the Democratic Primary election. Now, at the halfway point through early voting, Republican Party primary voters had fallen to just short of a majority of ballots cast, while Democratic Party primary voters remained at 5%. The percentage of voters who voted in the Republican Runoff election has also fallen, going from 31% to 26%. While Democratic Party primary voters maintained 5% both times we looked at the data, the share of voters who had voted in the Democratic Runoff fell from 2% to just 1%. Meanwhile, the number of votes cast by voters who participated in neither primary rose from 40% to 46%.

With early voting halfway over, we also ran the total turnout numbers compared to this point in the 2018 midterm election to calculate an estimated percentage of ballots yet to be cast at 54% for a total turnout of about 38,400 votes.

Potter County

Looking at Potter County, where 7,571 votes have been cast, we see similar shifts. The share of votes coming from Republican Primary election voters fell from a slightly majority of 52% to 45%, with Republican Runoff seeing their share fall from 28% to 23%. While Democratic Primary voters maintained the same vote share as they had in our first look at the data in Randall County, their share did fall in Potter from 9% to 8%, with the share cast by Democratic Runoff voters falling from 4% to 3%. Meanwhile, the share of voters in Potter County who did not cast a primary or runoff ballot earlier this year grew from 39% to 45%.

In Potter County, we estimate that 59% of ballots have yet to be cast, for a forecasted turnout of 18,000 votes.

Potter County Precinct 2

As we mentioned in our first report on turnout, two of the most high profile contested races locally are in Potter County precinct 2, where incumbent Democrat Robert Ruiz is fighting off a challenge by Republican Blair Schaffer to keep his seat on the Potter County Commissioners’ Court, while incumbent Republican Robert Taylor is hoping to keep his job as Justice of the Peace in a race against Democrat David Deleon. So far, 603 votes have been cast in the precinct.

The balance between Republican and Democratic Primary voters is still much closer here than in Potter County as a whole. Both sides have seen their shares fall, with Republican Primary voters falling from 37% to 33% and Democratic Primary voters falling from 14% to 12%. The share of runoff voters fell for each as well, with Republican Runoff voters falling from 17% to 15% and Democratic Runoff voters falling from 5% to 4%. Meanwhile, in Precinct 2, a majority of ballots (55%) have now been cast by those who did not vote in any primary or runoff, up from 49% when we first looked at the data.

Due to a lack of data and smaller overall turnout, we did not forecast a final turnout for Precinct 2.

The Takeaway

As usual, we expect that Republicans will win a majority of the vote in Potter and Randall, though the races in in Potter County Precinct 2 look like they could be tight. It’s also worth repeating that, just because a voter voted in one party’s primary or runoff, they are not bound to vote for that same party in the general election. Our estimated total turnout for both counties might also be slightly high, as the figures are extrapolated based on the percentage of total turnout seen at this point in the 2018 midterm election. Since that election, there has been a gravitation towards early voting, especially after 2020.