Which candidates will win in the June 24th runoff election? How many people will turn out?

While there is no way to be sure until polls close, we can turn back the clock to see how historic runoffs have played out.

The earliest runoff we could find in a city election here in Amarillo was 100 years ago. In the 1923 election, Amarillo had a mayor and two City Commissioners. While Mayor Lon D. Marrs, Commissioner Place 1 A. D. Armstrong, and Commissioner Place 2 John R. Trolinger were all running for reelection, voters rejected all three. In fact, while there was a runoff for Mayor and Place 1, neither incumbent even made it that far.

Eventually, Eugene S. Blasdel defeated Jefferson Capehart to become Mayor of Amarillo, while H. E. Smith defeated J. B. Grentz to replace Armstrong on the City Commission. (J. H. Harris, meanwhile, won the Place 2 election outright, while incumbent Trolinger got third place.)

There were 2,869 votes for mayor and 2,826 votes for place one in the first round. In a move that would not be repeated for nearly half a century, more votes were cast in the runoff than in the first round, with 3,229 votes cast for mayor and 3,201 cast for place one.

Including the 1923 election, there have been 35 races which have gone to runoffs across 20 runoff elections. In most of these, turnout decreased dramatically, with an average drop in turnout of just over 40%.

The only runoff election to see an increase in turnout from the first round since 1923 was the 1969 runoff. By 1969, the city’s legislative body had grown to the four seats we’re used to today, though it was still called the City Commission, not the City Council. In that year’s runoff, incumbent Mayor J. Earnest Stroud defeated challenger L. O’Brien Thompson, while incumbent Commissioner Place 3 W. S. Mays was ousted by challenger Houston Deford. The increase in turnout during the 1969 runoff was much smaller compared to the 1923 runoff, though. Only 1.69% more votes were cast for mayor compared to the first round, while 3.64% more were cast for Place 3.

So, who typically wins runoff elections? Out of the 35 races which have gone to runoffs, there were only 8 where the second-place finisher in the first round ended up on top after the runoff. Out of these races, the first round second-place finisher was on average only 6% behind the first place finisher, compared to an average spread of 11.04%.

Looking closer at the data, only one runoff in Amarillo history has seen a candidate who was down by more than double digits in the first round win in a runoff. That election was the 1961 runoff for Commissioner Place 3. In that election, incumbent Stanley Blackburn had won 42.77% in the first round, while challenger Jim Ney McCaskey came in second with 29.18%. After the runoff, McCaskey was victorious, earning 59.43% of the vote.

So, what can this history tell us about this year’s runoff election for City Council Place 1 and Place 4?

In the first round, about 20,000 people cast ballots in the two races headed to runoffs. If we assume the 40% average decrease seen over the last 100 years, we might expect a turnout of 12,000 votes to be cast. However, some years have seen a decrease in turnout closer to 70%, which could mean as few as 6,000 voters might cast ballots in this runoff. But who will win?

If history is an indicator, Josh Craft and Les Simpson might expect to pull off wins. In the first round, Josh Craft was ahead of Dean Crump by about 10%, while Les Simpson was ahead of Claudette Smith by about 21%.

On the other hand, this year’s election has already broken several historical trends. On May 6th, voters were faced with a ballot that was tied for the most crowded in city history. They also elected Mayor Cole Stanley in a record-breaking landslide.

Early voting for the runoff is June 12th through June 20th. Election Day is June 24th. Be sure to check out our voter guide at AmarilloVotes.online and check AmarilloPioneer.com on election night for live results.